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Hospitalization rates for AIDS and HIV-related conditions in New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco from 1983 through 1988 were studied to determine trends in the funding of AIDS-related care. The authors noted that increasingly care has been financed through Medicaid rather than through private health insurers, and that this trend has occurred among white, black, and Hispanic patients. Study data also confirmed that the "Medicaidization" of AIDS affected access to care. Patients whose treatment was financed by Medicaid were more likely to enter public rather than private hospitals, and to be admitted via an emergency room rather than by a private physician. Green and Arno are concerned that "Medicaidization," which jeopardizes access to office-based primary care because of low physician reimbursement rates, will deny new life-prolonging therapies to many AIDS patients. They propose policies that would improve access to care by strengthening AIDS financing.
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PMID:The 'Medicaidization' of AIDS. Trends in the financing of HIV-related medical care. 238 83

We identified 277 homosexual and bisexual men diagnosed with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) whose estimated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion dates, ranging from 1977-85, could be well approximated. These men were from a cohort of 6,705 homosexual and bisexual men originally recruited for studies of sexually transmitted hepatitis B in San Francisco in 1978-80. We compared the time from HIV seroconversion to the initial disease diagnostic of AIDS (AIDS latency period) with the time from first AIDS diagnosis to death (AIDS survival time) and found no significant overall correlation between latency period and survival time. Both Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard stepwise analyses found the initial AIDS diagnosis to be significantly associated with latency period, with individuals first diagnosed with Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) having a shorter latency but longer survival than those first diagnosed with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) or other AIDS diagnoses. Individuals with KS tended to be diagnosed earlier in the epidemic compared to those with PCP and other non-KS diagnoses. The AIDS survival time was significantly associated with the initial AIDS diagnosis but not with the estimated year of seroconversion, the year of first AIDS diagnosis, age at seroconversion, or racial/ethnic group. The information presented here on the relationship between the AIDS latency period and survival times suggests a model for the pathogenesis of HIV infection in which there is continual deterioration of the immune system. The wider use of antiviral and prophylactic therapies both preceding and following a diagnosis of AIDS may change this model as both latency and survival times are improved.
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PMID:Relationship between AIDS latency period and AIDS survival time in homosexual and bisexual men. 221 8

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is an important risk factor for invasive pneumococcal disease, but information on clinical course and infecting serotypes is limited. To help develop strategies to reduce the morbidity due to invasive pneumococcal disease, episodes of pneumococcal bacteremia were identified by retrospective review of microbiology records (November 1983-November 1987) at 10 San Francisco hospitals and, for patients 20-55 years old living in San Francisco, HIV antibody status was determined by review of medical records. Pneumococcal isolates from one hospital were serotyped. Of 294 patients with pneumococcal bacteremia identified, 32 (11%) had AIDS at the time pneumococcal bacteremia was diagnosed and another 43 (15%) were HIV-infected but did not have AIDS; 12 HIV-infected patients developed AIDS after the episode of pneumococcal bacteremia. The rate of pneumococcal bacteremia in AIDS patients was estimated to be 9.4/1000 patient-years. Serotypes of 27 (82%) of 33 pneumococcal isolates from HIV-infected patients and 107 (90%) from 119 patients without known HIV infection were among the 23 serotypes included in the currently available polysaccharide vaccine. The rate of pneumococcal bacteremia is approximately 100-fold greater in AIDS patients in San Francisco than rates reported before the AIDS epidemic, but more than half the episodes of pneumococcal bacteremia in HIV-infected patients occurred in patients without AIDS. Data on pneumococcal serotypes causing invasive disease in HIV-infected patients suggest that the current pneumococcal vaccine, if effective in this population, could provide significant protection against pneumococcal disease.
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PMID:The role of human immunodeficiency virus infection in pneumococcal bacteremia in San Francisco residents. 223 Feb 29

Prevention campaigns to reduce sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) typically emphasize the initial adoption of safer sex techniques. We present data from a 5-year prospective study to show that the vast majority of resident gay men in San Francisco have made these initial risk reductions. Rather, relapse from safer sex techniques is now the predominant predominant kind of high-risk sex, accounting for approximately two thirds of all prevalent high-risk sex in the 1988 wave of data collection. Predictors of relapse from safer sex are identified, and these are discussed in terms of their implications for preventing relapse from the exclusive practice of safe sex. In communities that have already manifested widespread behavioral risk reductions and in which HIV infection is highly prevalent, finding ways to prevent relapse of behavioral risk reductions will be the next important challenge in the fight against acquired immune deficiency syndrome.
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PMID:Relapse from safer sex: the next challenge for AIDS prevention efforts. 224 18

Two rough methods are given to estimate the combined HIV prevalence in Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco in homosexual men. Both methods are related to the back calculation technique, and use AIDS surveillance data and information obtained from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Both methods suggest that the combined HIV prevalence is approximately 100,000, with a possible range of 80,000-140,000.
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PMID:Two quick estimates of the HIV prevalence in homosexual men in Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. 225 66

OBJECTIVE--To characterise the natural history of sexually transmitted HIV-I infection in homosexual and bisexual men. DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--San Francisco municipal sexually transmitted disease clinic. PATIENTS--Cohort included 6705 homosexual and bisexual men originally recruited from 1978 to 1980 for studies of sexually transmitted hepatitis B. This analysis is of 489 cohort members who were either HIV-I seropositive on entry into the cohort (n = 312) or seroconverted during the study period and had less than or equal to 24 months between the dates of their last seronegative and first seropositive specimens (n = 177). A subset of 442 of these men was examined in 1988 or 1989 or had been reported to have developed AIDS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Development of clinical signs and symptoms of HIV-I infection, including AIDS, AIDS related complex, asymptomatic generalised lymphadenopathy, and no signs or symptoms of infection. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Of the 422 men examined in 1988 or 1989 or reported as having AIDS, 341 had been infected from 1977 to 1980; 49% (167) of these men had died of AIDS, 10% (34) were alive with AIDS, 19% (65) had AIDS related complex, 3% (10) had asymptomatic generalised lymphadenopathy, and 19% (34) had no clinical signs or symptoms of HIV-I infection. Cumulative risk of AIDS by duration of HIV-I infection was analysed for all 489 men by the Kaplan-Meier method. Of these 489 men, 226 (46%) had been diagnosed as having AIDS. We estimated that 13% of cohort members will have developed AIDS within five years of seroconversion, 51% within 10 years, and 54% within 11.1 years. CONCLUSION--Our analysis confirming the importance of duration of infection to clinical state and the high risk of AIDS after infection underscores the importance of continuing efforts both to prevent transmission of HIV-I and to develop further treatments to slow or stall the progression of HIV-I infection to AIDS.
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PMID:Course of HIV-I infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men: an 11 year follow up study. 226 54

A single-page computer spreadsheet can be used to back-calculate the size of the population at risk from the reported number of AIDS cases and HIV seropositivity levels for that population. However, Cohen (1988:35) has cautioned that "this method requires some heroic assumptions, and is, therefore, fraught with difficulty." Slight variations in the definition of AIDS, in the progression rate, and in reported seropositivity rates used as data in the spreadsheet can make enormous differences in the results obtained through back-calculation. Despite the limitations of the method, an estimate of the possible size of the IDU population can be derived from back-calculation, with careful consideration of ethnographic realities taken into account. In San Francisco, the present authors believe that there were approximately 13,000 heterosexual IDUs as of the end of 1989. Further demographic divisions by ethnicity, age, sex, and even neighborhood could be made using the same techniques, if AIDS cases and seropositivity levels could be obtained for each variable. Table II predicts a cumulative 705 AIDS diagnoses among San Francisco heterosexual IDUs by the end of 1993, or nearly six times as many as reported through 1988. This prediction is based on an assumption of 2.5% seroconversion per year (1989-1993) and on modest progression-rate increments of 5%, 5%, 4%, 3%, and 3% in the eleventh through fifteenth years after HIV infection. Thus, it shows the magnitude of the epidemic that San Francisco will shortly face and emphasizes the need to act vigorously to prevent further HIV contagion among IDUs as well as from them to their heterosexual partners (drug using or not).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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PMID:A spreadsheet for AIDS: estimating heterosexual injection drug user population size from AIDS statistics in San Francisco. 228 68

This paper reports an outcome evaluation and needs assessment conducted by the AIDS and Substance Abuse Program (ASAP) of the San Francisco AIDS Health Project. The study was designed to: 1) evaluate effectiveness of a hospital based intervention and referral service for HIV affected substance abusers, and 2) gather information from this population regarding accessibility and barriers to drug treatment. Participants were 86 individuals consecutively referred to ASAP over an 8-month period. All received a brief needs assessment interview in addition to the standard ASAP evaluation protocol. Agency follow-up contacts were made for those individuals referred by ASAP to extended substance abuse treatment, with information limited to whether or not the client contacted the designated referral resource. Source of referral to ASAP, interest in treatment, and prior sexual risk behavior change were significant predictors of intervention outcome. Personal unreadiness and treatment program waiting lists were the most frequently reported obstacles to treatment. While most participants reported changing risk behavior in response to the AIDS epidemic, patterns of change differed according to intravenous drug use history.
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PMID:Evaluation of a hospital based substance abuse intervention and referral service for HIV affected patients. 229 29

Since the middle of 1987, fewer consistently defined AIDS cases have been reported than expected among homosexual and bisexual men in the United States. This "AIDS deficit" was greater among homosexual and bisexual men in New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, but was also striking among all homosexual and bisexual men in the United States. Deficits were virtually absent among intravenous drug users (IVDUs) in the United States. Three independent sources of data--placebo-controlled trials, pharmaceutical company reports, and the San Francisco Men's Health Study--were used to demonstrate that the amounts of zidovudine (AZT) given prophylactically to those at highest risk of AIDS since March 1987 have been sufficient to account for most of the observed AIDS deficits. Other advances in the medical care of pre-AIDS patients may have combined with AZT to produce the deficits. Other hypothesized explanations were examined and found insufficient to account for the observed AIDS deficits, including: (a) a sudden halt in new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections during the early or mid-1980s; (b) misspecification of the distribution of AIDS incubation times following HIV infection; (c) increasing delays in the reporting of AIDS cases; (d) changes in the surveillance definition of AIDS in 1987; and (e) evolution of attenuated HIV strains. The hypothesis that therapy is affecting national AIDS rates has important implications. Failure to take the effects of therapy into account can lead to serious underestimates by back-calculation of the cumulative numbers infected with HIV and of AIDS incidence over the longer term. Moreover, it appears that AIDS incidence could be retarded in underserved groups, such as IVDUs, by making AZT and other state-of-the-art treatments readily available to AIDS-free patients with advanced immunodeficiency.
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PMID:Therapy may explain recent deficits in AIDS incidence. 231 68

As the number of women with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) continues to rise in the United States, it becomes important to target preventive interventions as effectively as possible toward those groups at highest risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We analyzed the prevalence of serum antibody to HIV in 333 women admitted to the Gynecology Service at San Francisco General Hospital with acute pelvic inflammatory disease in the years 1985-1988. The proportion of women with HIV infection in our sample rose incrementally over this 4-year period, from 0 to 6.7%. A history of intravenous (IV) drug use conferred a 23-fold risk of HIV seropositivity. In contrast, markers of the level of sexual activity did not correlate significantly with the presence of HIV infection, although the power to detect such an association was limited by the small sample size. An intensification of educational efforts directed at IV drug-using women in San Francisco is necessary to prevent further increases in the rate of HIV infection and further spread into the heterosexual population.
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PMID:Seroprevalence and epidemiologic correlates of human immunodeficiency virus infection in women with acute pelvic inflammatory disease. 231 85


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